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论世界能源体系的双重变革与中国的能源转型
云南大学
On the Dual Changes of the World Energy System and the Energy Transition of China
Yunnan University

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摘要 21世纪以来,世界能源体系发生了双重变革。其中,以页岩油气开发为代表的非常规油气革命缓解了能源市场紧张的供求关系,并使得油气资源的供应日益多元化;在政策引导与技术进步的影响下,可再生能源产业也得到了稳步的发展,已经开始了对传统化石能源的替代进程。从能源替代的角度看,这双重变革间存在着竞争性与矛盾性,但若考虑到更多的现实性因素,并从能源政治经济学等更广的角度看,两者则具有互补性与统一性。国际能源体系的双重变革对各国能源战略产生了深刻影响。其中,美国决定恢复对传统能源产业的扶持,而德国则仍坚持促进可再生能源产业的发展。在高碳能源结构仍将持续、能源峰值尚未到来的情况下,中国应采取以保障能源安全为核心,兼顾环保的能源转型思路。在具体的实施层面,中国应注重能源转型战略设计的整体性、前瞻性以及政策制定与执行的连续性。此外,还应推动能源外交的升级,通过加强能源制度性权力与输出能源开发能力,力争成为此轮国际能源转型的重要引领者。
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关键词 非常规油气资源可再生能源能源转型能源革命    
Abstract:Since the 21st century, the world energy system has witnessed two important changes. Unconventional oil and gas revolution, represented by the exploitation of shale oil and gas, alleviates the supply-demand relationship in the energy market, and increases the diversity of oil and gas supply. In the meanwhile, driven by policy guidance and technological progress, the renewable energy industry has also developed steadily, and begins to replace traditional fossil energy. From the perspective of energy substitution, there are competitiveness and contradictions between the two changes. However, from a broader perspective such as the political economy of energy, with more realistic factors into consideration, the two changes are complementary and unified. The dual change of the international energy system has profound impacts on the energy strategies of various countries. Among them, the US decides to restore support for traditional energy, while Germany still insists on promoting the development of renewable energy industries. In the background that the high-carbon energy structure will continue and the energy peak has not yet arrived, the guiding principle of China’s energy transition should focus on the protection of energy security, taking into account environmental protection. At the implementation level, China should pay attention that the energy transition strategy should be comprehensive and forward-looking, and the continuity of policy formulation and execution should be highlighted. Furthermore, China should promote the upgrade of energy diplomacy, strengthen the energy institutional power, and export energy exploitation capability, with the aim to become an important leader in the international energy transition.
Key wordsunconventional oil and gas resources    renewable energy    energy transition    energy revolution   
    
基金资助:本文系国家社科基金项目“美国能源再平衡战略及其影响研究”(14XGJ013)的阶段性研究成果。
作者简介: 吴磊,男,云南昆明人,云南大学国际关系研究院院长,教授,博士生导师,历史学博士,主要研究方向:国际能源安全与中国石油安全;曹峰毓,男,辽宁大连人,云南大学国际关系研究院2016级博士研究生,主要研究方向:能源政治。
引用本文:   
吴磊、曹峰毓. 论世界能源体系的双重变革与中国的能源转型[J]. 太平洋学报, 2019, 27(3): 37-49. WU Lei, CAO Fengyu. On the Dual Changes of the World Energy System and the Energy Transition of China. 太平洋学报, 2019, 27(3): 37-49.
链接本文:  
http://www.pacificjournal.com.cn/CN/     或     http://www.pacificjournal.com.cn/CN/Y2019/V27/I3/37
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