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Abstract This paper combines the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism and geopolitics to analyze the dynamic mechanism of maritime-land countries’ transformation from continental powers to maritime powers. The dynamic mechanism consists of the structure, unit and subunit elements. The structure involves geo-pattern, geographic interaction and the balance between offense and defense, and the three parts altogether shape the inclusive or restrictive strategic environment of the countries. The unit and subunit elements cover strategic doctrine, paths of rising, capacity to absorb domestic resources and mobilize, and domestic economic transformation, which respectively influence the perception, decision-making, and enforcement of the national strategic decision. As an independent variable, external strategic circumstances function in the strategic transformation only after being filtered by the mediating variable of national strategic decision-making level, and the efficacy of independent variable is inversely proportional to that of mediating variable. China’s transformation to a maritime power is confronted with challenges unique to the times such as historical background, strategic environment, the path of rising, strategic doctrine, and the ability to absorb resources as well as mobilize. The optimal path of China’s transformation is to take the defensive mode in which the continental power dominates while complemented by the maritime power. Such a path could make a balance between “keeping a low profile” and “being proactive in actions”, and avoid the tragedy of over-expansion in the rise and strategic transformation of the great power.
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