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| From the Singapore Summit to the Hanoi Summit: Predicament, crux and Prospect of DPRK⁃US Denuclearization Talks |
| Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences |
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Abstract The failure of the 2019 Hanoi Summit following the 2018 Singapore Summit demonstrates the grave difference on the path and the goal of denuclearization between the US and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The two countries find themselves entrapped in the dilemma that if they fail to find a compromising and breakthrough point, the nuclear issue will remain unsolved for a rather long time,which will be the second worst option for both the US and the DPRK. As for China and South Korea, they will face an unfavorable situation so long as DPRK maintains its nuclearized status. In the future, there are variables for development: whether the DPRK will have a new and bolder roadmap for expanding the scope of dismantling nuclear facilities; the DPRK's ability against economic sanction; should the US intensifies the sanction, the DPRK might break the promise of suspending nuclear activities and resume some sort of nuclear and missile development; finally, the US might propose alternative plans for DPRK⁃US denuclearization talks if prospects are dim in terms of so⁃called Final, Fully Verified Denuclearization(FFVD).
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2019, Vol. 27 
