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Current Issue
2024 Vol. 32, No. 3 Published: 28 March 2024
Politics and Law
An Exploration of the Dual-geopolitical Roles of Buffer States in the Transformation of the International System
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YANG Fei
2024, 32(3): 1-15 | Full text
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The buffer states and the buffered states (one weak between two strong powers) constitute a special regional security structure. The buffer states are regarded as the peace zone to maintain the peace between great powers and they are also seen as the arena of aggravating great power conflicts. This situation always triggers disagreements and debates about their geopolitical roles in academic circles. This study selects three buffer states in the transformation of the international system (from the Vienna System to the Yalta System, 1871-1845): Afghanistan (Anglo-Russian game, 1873-1917), Siam (Anglo-French game, 1896-1918) and Poland (Soviet-German game, 1918-1945), exploring the dynamic changes of the geopolitical roles of the buffer states in different stages and regions. This study finds that the buffer states have dual geopolitical roles of maintaining peace between great powers and exacerbating their conflicts, while their geopolitical roles vary with the change of their geopolitical identities among peace zones, arenas, spheres of influence, and strategic depth. The buffer state has been seen as a historical concept of reflecting a certain historical burden, while its inherent buffer thinking has positive values in managing conflicts between great powers. This study draws on historical experience for China to strive to shape a strategic buffer in the space-time dimension, and provides certain reference.
Russia’s Foreign Policy Trends during President Putin’s Fifth Term
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ZHANG Jian
2024, 32(3): 16-33 | Full text
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In 2024, against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia held its presidential election, and Vladimir Putin once again emerged victorious with high approval ratings. The main factors of contributing to Putin’s victory consist of that amid overall stability, the Russian government strengthens central vertical management, institutional development, and control over online media, the economy has been showing signs of recovery after a period of stabilization, Russia maintains its status as a major and powerful country in foreign policy, a solid popular base, and a weak opposition. In his new term, Putin faces the challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, deteriorating regional conditions, and the need to balance national security with economic development. Crisis management and adapting to the situation have become the main themes of Russia’s current foreign policy. In the foreseeable policy period, Russia’s foreign policy will maintain stability and development in terms of teams and personnel. Putin will continue his pragmatic and flexible approach by adopting different attitudes towards the United States, NATO, and European countries to ease the isolation situation, employing different strategies in response to external influences on the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries to safeguard Russia’s interests, strategically shifting its focus towards the East, accelerating the development of relations with Asia-Pacific countries and the Global South and placing emphasis on deepening comprehensive strategic cooperation with China. Russia’s identity and foreign policy in times of adversity will have diverse and noteworthy manifestations.
The Differentiation of Strategic Choices of Middle Powers in the Indo-Pacific Region in the Era of Comprehensive Competition
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ZHANG Chi
2024, 32(3): 34-48 | Full text
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The launch of the Indo-Pacific strategy by the United States has opened the prelude to the comprehensive competition between China and the United States. Having seen the intensification of great power competition, the intensification of fragmentation of the international order, and the prominence of the competition of technology and supply chain capabilities, the middle powers in the Indo-Pacific region are facing increasing pressure to choose sides and have their differences in the strategic choice between China and the United States. There are a few reasons of taking these actions. Firstly, the perception preference of the government and the public and the national identity at the domestic level determine the preference of the middle power between China and the United States. Secondly, the supply chain dependency structure and an institutional buffer to hedge against the pressure of great powers at the international system level affect the degree of polarization of preferences. The policies of Australia, South Korea and Indonesia illustrate the mechanism and logic behind the strategic choices of middle powers. Therefore, by creating a China-friendly perception, promoting the spread of the Asian identity in the region, providing more diversified supply chain options and continuing to support the ASEAN-centered multilateral regional order, China should strive to promote the Indo-Pacific middle powers to maintain strategic neutrality between China and the United States and build a China-favorable international relations and strategic environment.
War Ethics Regulation to Solving the Dilemma of Network Attack Traceability
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ZHAO Zhen
2024, 32(3): 49-61 | Full text
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The traceability of cyber attacks aims to determine the subject of attacks in virtual cyberspace. The attackers can be punished, which is of great significance for the realization of security and peace in cyberspace. However, in reality, the traceability of cyber attacks is difficult to finally target the attackers through technical means, and it is also difficult to attribute an attack responsibility to a government through legal channels. To solve the traceability problem, it is necessary to transform the research horizon, from the problem traceability to the attack behavior itself, distinguishing the national cyber attacks from various cyber attacks and carrying out ethical regulation. National cyber attack is essentially a new type of war by organizing violence and reflecting the state will. It is difficult to apply existing ethics to the new war because international cyberspace reflects essentially a lack of ethics. Thus, regulating national cyber attacks requires reshaping the war ethics and it might fundamentally crack traceability dilemma. We should abandon the realistic ethical concept of force first and establish the view of just war in cyberspace. We also should actively identify the national network behavior through the principle of declaration, and follow the principle of appropriateness to accept the review of justice. We should follow the principle of equality and balance on the Internet to promote an international environment of peace and justice.
The Decarbonization of Supply Chains in Developed Countries and Policy Responses
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MAO Tao
2024, 32(3): 62-74 | Full text
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Abstract: In the context of global carbon neutrality, multinational enterprises in developed countries have proposed decarbonization goals in the supply chains, driving upstream and down stream enterprises to develop their supply chains towards low-carbon or even zero carbon level. This move not only promotes the reshaping of global industrial chains, supply chains, and value chains, but also further intensifies international competition in the low-carbon field, which has a potential impact on manufacturing industries in developing countries, including China, especially this can weaken the resilience of many enterprises’ supply chains. In this regard, it is recommended to strengthen synergy between policies and laws, regulatory tools, pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and carry out the construction of carbon footprint databases, standard certification systems, and design methodology. Key guidance should be given to the leading enterprises with operations in international markets to promote the trend of carbon reduction of the upstream and downstream enterprises, thereby enhancing the green resilience of China’s supply chain.
Economy and Society
Following Sanctions: Japan’s Sanctions on Russia under Russia-Ukraine Conflicts
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YU Hailong
2024, 32(3): 75-89 | Full text
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This article argues that the Kishida government adopted a strategy focusing on comprehensive sanctions against Russia, multilateral interaction with the US and Europe, and supplemented by diversified assistance to Ukraine, following in the footsteps of the United States to enhance the level of cooperation with the United States and Europe, Japan’s sanctions have dealt a heavy blow to Russia, especially affecting Russia’s economy and finances, prompting Russia to implement a series of counter-sanctions measures. Japanese sanctions also have multiple impacts on Japan’s national construction. On the one hand, Japan’s energy security, price stability, and other related issues have been greatly affected; on the other hand, Japan takes the opportunity to strengthen its security capabilities. Moreover, Japan’s sanctions against Russia have pushed Japan-US security cooperation to a new level, and Japan-Europe cooperation has taken on new trends and characteristics, affecting the reform of the United Nations, Japan’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and the direction of the international order. However, Japan’s sanctions against Russia also suffer from constraints such as insufficient capacity and willingness, and asymmetry of the Japan-Russia economic and trade structure, which affects the durability and effectiveness of Japan’s sanctions against Russia. Fundamentally, the persistence of sanctions against Russia is a front for Japan to shake off the post-war shackles, break the deadlock in the Japan-Russia territorial dispute, and strengthen its ability to balance China. In this regard, China should, based on the “Chinese Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis”, maintain its strategic stability, resolutely avoid the emergence of a “new cold war”, make good preparations for risks, and make good preparations for the reconstruction of the region.
Building a Strong Maritime Country
A Comprehensive Legal Analysis of Regimes of International Straits
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LI Renda
2024, 32(3): 90-102 | Full text
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As the key nodes of global oceans, international straits are not only the places for China to break through the island chain blockade, but also they are the pivotal channels that affect the smoothness of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The regimes of international straits have been stipulated by the relevant provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. First, the passage systems for special straits with long-standing international conventions are retained. For example, the system of Turkish Straits is stipulated by the 1936 Montreux Convention, the regime of the Strait of Magellan is stated clearly by the Boundary Treaty of 1881 between Chile and Argentina, and the manner of passing through Danish Straits is announced by the Copenhagen Treaty of 1857. Second, ships and aircraft of foreign countries can exercise the freedom of navigation and overflight to go through the routes of exclusive economic zones and high seas of straits used for international navigation such as Soya Strait, Tsugaru Strait, Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel. Third, these ships and aircraft can apply the regime of transit passage to pass through the territorial seas of territorial straits used for international navigation like Tokara Strait, Strait of Malacca, Bab al-Mandab Strait and Strait of Dover. Fourth, in Messina-exception straits and dead-end-exception straits, the ships and aircraft have the right to apply the innocent passage system that should not be suspended, including the Strait of Messina, Kalmar Sund, Strait of Tiran and Head Harbour Passage. Therefore, the rights of passage enjoyed by the ships and aircraft in the relevant areas of the straits rely on the rules of international law while they do not depend upon the bounty of the States bordering the straits and the goodwill of other maritime powers. China’s ships and aircraft have the legal rights to apply the above-mentioned 4 types of traffic regimes of international straits to connect the world through the seas and oceans. At the same time, the international community should strengthen cooperation to ensure the smoothness of passing in the straits, promote the development of maritime transport, enhance human welfare and jointly build a maritime community with a shared future.
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