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“统一预阻”:美台安全合作的楔子战略视角
复旦大学
Alliance Politics and Pre-reunification: Theoretical Analysis of the Wedge Strategy on U.S. Security Cooperation with Taiwan
Fudan University

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摘要 特朗普时期美国的台海政策相较于以往仍存在一定的延续性,这既包括其具体台海政策的延续,更包括政策背后美国联盟政治战略思维的延续,其典型表现即是美台安全合作的持续与深化。本文提出,美台安全合作是美国长期以来打入两岸关系中的一个楔子,其并非仅出于制衡大陆的战略考量,更重要的是要实现“统一预阻”的楔子战略目标,预防美国在亚太区域的联盟体系被弱化,维系美国对东亚安全秩序的主导权。“统一预阻”即动员自身战略资源实施楔子战略,预先阻止两岸统一。美国“统一预阻”楔子战略的动因主要包括两点:其一,在美国保守的联盟思维中,若两岸统一,那么台湾地区作为美国“准盟友”的角色将会丧失,这可能导致日本、韩国等东亚盟友怀疑美国主导亚太的能力,并在安全层面上倒向中国,进而会弱化美国在亚太区域的联盟体系;其二,于美国而言,一个统一而强大的中国,其反介入/区域拒止能力将极大增强,美在东亚和西太平洋地区盟友的势力范围战略部署可能因两岸统一而被迫东移,美国及其盟友在西太地区战略利益可能面临重大威胁。通过实施“认可”型楔子战略,美国动员较少战略资源即可收获较大的战略效益。本文旨在尝试从联盟政治理论层面为探讨美台安全合作提供一个新的楔子战略视角。
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王晓虎
关键词 楔子战略联盟政治美台关系统一预阻    
Abstract:Compared with the predecessor’s policy towards Taiwan, Trump administration maintains continuation to a certain extent, which not only includes the continuation of specific policy towards Taiwan, but also covers the logic of alliance politics and wedge strategy of the United States. Consequently, U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation has been kept upgrading and deepening. The paper proposes that the U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation is the “Wedge” that drove between Taiwan and Mainland China by the United States. The goal of the U.S. wedge strategy is not limited to impede Mainland China, but more importantly, to achieve the goal of “pre-reunification”, which means to prevent the weakening of U.S. ally system in Asia-Pacific region and to maintain the dominance of U.S. in the East Asia security order. The motivation of U.S. wedge strategy consists of two aspects: on the one hand, according to the conservative alliance logic, the “quasially” role of Taiwan will be gone with the reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, which probably lead to other allies’ doubt of U.S. capability to maintain the security order in the East Asia; on the other hand, if the reunification is realized in the near future, China’s capability of Anti-access/Area-denial (A2/AD) will be highly improved, which might pose a serious threat to the U.S. strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region. As a result, the U.S. tries to gain huge strategic interests with the endorsement of wedge strategy. In summary, the paper tries to take a new perspective to study the U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation and widen the application of alliance politics and wedge strategy.
Key wordswedge strategy    alliance politics    U.S.-Taiwan relations    pre-reunification   
    
基金资助:本文获得教育部“2011计划”两岸关系和平发展协同创新中心研究资助。
作者简介: 王晓虎,男,河南濮阳人,复旦大学台湾研究中心博士研究生,主要研究方向:台湾问题与中美关系、美国台海政策。
引用本文:   
王晓虎. “统一预阻”:美台安全合作的楔子战略视角[J]. 太平洋学报, 2018, 26(3): 39-48. WANG Xiaohu. Alliance Politics and Pre-reunification: Theoretical Analysis of the Wedge Strategy on U.S. Security Cooperation with Taiwan. 太平洋学报, 2018, 26(3): 39-48.
链接本文:  
http://www.pacificjournal.com.cn/CN/     或     http://www.pacificjournal.com.cn/CN/Y2018/V26/I3/39
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