Abstract:In trade relations, one country's trade expectations will directly affect its trade policies towards other countries. Generally speaking, positive expectations are conducive to peaceful coexistence, while negative expectations will lead to conflicts. Trade disputes provoked by the US against China show the negative trade expectations of the US, which results from a combination of endogenous and exogenous factors. Endogenous factors include structural problems between China and the US, the expansion of the China-US trade deficit, conservatism atmosphere in the US, and the resulting cognitive bias towards China's system. Meanwhile, exogenous factors, such as the rapid development of manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia and the North Korean issue, have exacerbated the negative expectations of the US. Trade frictions have done great damage to the global multilateral trading system and rules, and will ultimately cause destruction to both sides. China should strive to resolve trade disputes through negotiations, actively guide the United States to form a positive expectation of trade with China and avoid destruction to both sides.
李波、刘昌明. 中美经贸摩擦的成因与对策:基于贸易预期理论的视角[J]. 太平洋学报, 2019, 27(9): 71-81.
LI Bo,LIU Changming. Roots and Countermeasures of China-US Trade Frictions: from the Perspective of Trade Expectation Theory. 太平洋学报, 2019, 27(9): 71-81.