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“复合竞争”时代印太“中等强国”战略选择的分化
上海政法学院
The Differentiation of Strategic Choices of Middle Powers in the Indo-Pacific Region in the Era of Comprehensive Competition
Shanghai University of Political Science and Law

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摘要 美国推出“印太战略”拉开了中美“复合竞争”的序幕。随着大国竞争烈度的增强,国际秩序分裂和集团化倾向的加剧,科技和供应链能力之争的凸显,印太域内的“中等强国”面临越来越大的“选边站”压力,在中美之间的战略选择上亦出现了分化。究其原因,首先,国内层面的官民认知偏好和身份认同两个因素决定了“中等强国”在中美之间的选择偏好;其次,国际体系层面的供应链依赖结构以及是否具有对冲大国压力的制度缓冲影响着选择偏好的极化程度。澳大利亚、韩国和印度尼西亚三国的政策印证了“中等强国”战略选择背后的逻辑。因此,中国应通过在印太“中等强国”国内营造对华友善的认知,推动“亚洲认同”在区域内的扩散,提供更多元化的供应链选择以及继续支持“以东盟为中心”的多边主义地区秩序,努力促使印太“中等强国”在中美之间保持战略中立甚至倾向中国,构建有利于我国的国际关系和战略环境。
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张弛
关键词 印太“中等强国”“复合竞争”战略选择    
Abstract:The launch of the Indo-Pacific strategy by the United States has opened the prelude to the comprehensive competition between China and the United States. Having seen the intensification of great power competition, the intensification of fragmentation of the international order, and the prominence of the competition of technology and supply chain capabilities, the middle powers in the Indo-Pacific region are facing increasing pressure to choose sides and have their differences in the strategic choice between China and the United States. There are a few reasons of taking these actions. Firstly, the perception preference of the government and the public and the national identity at the domestic level determine the preference of the middle power between China and the United States. Secondly, the supply chain dependency structure and an institutional buffer to hedge against the pressure of great powers at the international system level affect the degree of polarization of preferences. The policies of Australia, South Korea and Indonesia illustrate the mechanism and logic behind the strategic choices of middle powers. Therefore, by creating a China-friendly perception, promoting the spread of the Asian identity in the region, providing more diversified supply chain options and continuing to support the ASEAN-centered multilateral regional order, China should strive to promote the Indo-Pacific middle powers to maintain strategic neutrality between China and the United States and build a China-favorable international relations and strategic environment.
Key wordsIndo-Pacific    Middle Power    Comprehensive Competition    Strategic Choice   
    
基金资助:本文系国家社科基金青年项目“韩国对中国的认知轨迹变化与中韩关系发展策略研究”(20CGJ033)
作者简介: 张弛(1986—),男,河南洛阳人,上海政法学院政府管理学院副教授、硕士生导师,法学博士,主要研究方向:朝鲜半岛与东北亚国际关系、国家安全战略。
引用本文:   
张弛. “复合竞争”时代印太“中等强国”战略选择的分化[J]. 太平洋学报, 2024, 32(3): 34-48. ZHANG Chi. The Differentiation of Strategic Choices of Middle Powers in the Indo-Pacific Region in the Era of Comprehensive Competition. Pacific Journal, 2024, 32(3): 34-48.
链接本文:  
http://www.pacificjournal.com.cn/CN/     或     http://www.pacificjournal.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V32/I3/34
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